Christ, my head is pounding like a jackhammer convention, but this story needs telling. Pour yourself a drink and settle in, because the AI party might finally be winding down – and not a moment too soon.
Remember last year when every venture capitalist and their therapy dog was screaming about how GPT-4 would replace us all? Well, grab some popcorn and your favorite bottle, because reality just kicked in the door with some sobering news: OpenAI’s next big thing – the so-called “Orion” model – is turning out to be more of a wine cooler than the promised top-shelf whiskey.
According to The Information (and some loose-lipped employees who’ve probably been drowning their sorrows), this shiny new model isn’t the quantum leap forward everyone expected. In fact, it’s barely stumbling forward compared to GPT-4. The best part? It can’t even code as well as its predecessor. Though apparently, it’s better at writing emails – because that’s exactly what humanity needs more of, right?
Here’s where it gets really interesting, folks. These AI companies have been gorging themselves on data like drunk college kids at an all-you-can-eat buffet, and now – surprise, surprise – they’re running out of food. They’ve stripped every worthwhile bit of text from social media, sucked YouTube dry twice over, and now they’re scratching their heads wondering where to get their next fix.
The whole situation reminds me of that regular at O’Malley’s who keeps trying to convince the bartender that water is just as good as whiskey. It ain’t, pal. It just ain’t.
But wait – there’s more. The power requirements for these digital brain factories are getting absolutely insane. Microsoft’s trying to resurrect Three Mile Island (because what could possibly go wrong?), AWS is buying power plants like they’re Pokemon cards, and Google’s hoarding nuclear reactors like they’re preparing for digital doomsday.
You want to know how much juice these AI models are expected to guzzle in the next decade? Six times what they’re drinking now. Six. Times. That’s like going from a casual beer at lunch to a full-blown weekend in Vegas. The national power grid is looking at these requirements the same way my liver looks at me every Sunday morning – with deep concern and a hint of resignation.
OpenAI’s solution? They’ve created something called a “foundations team” to figure out how to train their models with synthetic data. That’s right – they want to feed AI artificial information because they’ve run out of real stuff. It’s like trying to get drunk on non-alcoholic beer. Sure, you can do it, but what’s the point?
The whole mess reminds me of last night at the bar, watching some hotshot try to impress everyone with increasingly elaborate cocktail orders until he finally admitted he couldn’t handle anything stronger than a light beer. These AI companies have been promising us the moon, and now they’re struggling to get off the launchpad.
Look, I’ve been covering this circus for years now, and I’ve seen enough hype cycles to know when the party’s winding down. The truth is, we’re hitting some very real, very human limitations here. You can’t just keep throwing more computers and electricity at the problem and expect miracles. That’s not how progress works – trust me, I’ve tried that approach with my writing, and all it got me was a hefty bar tab and a manuscript full of typos.
The really funny part? Everyone acted like this was impossible. “AI progress is inevitable,” they said. “It’s exponential,” they said. Well, guess what? Nothing grows forever – except maybe my tab at Jimmy’s Bar & Grill.
Orion’s now supposedly coming in 2025, assuming we don’t blow every fuse from here to Saskatchewan trying to power it. But the bigger question isn’t when it’s coming – it’s whether anyone will care when it does. Because at this rate, it’ll be about as revolutionary as a hangover cure that’s just “drink more water.”
Here’s the bottom line, friends: AI isn’t dying, but it’s definitely hitting its awkward teenage years. And just like teenagers, it’s discovering that growing up is a lot harder than it looked from a distance. The days of easy gains are over, and now comes the hard part – figuring out how to make meaningful progress without bankrupting the planet or burning through every available electron in the Northern Hemisphere.
Time will tell if they can pull it off, but one thing’s for sure – I’ll be here, watching it all unfold with a glass of bourbon in hand and a smirk on my face. Because sometimes the best thing you can do is sit back, pour yourself a drink, and watch reality catch up with the hype.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to go find some aspirin. These AI stories give me worse headaches than dollar shot night.
Until next time, Henry C. (Written with assistance from Jack Daniel’s finest)
Source: Is GPT-5 in trouble? Report suggests that AI has plateaued