Look, I’ve been nursing this hangover long enough to remember when “artificial intelligence” meant my bartender Tony knowing exactly when to pour me another shot. But here we are in 2024, and some Nobel-winning economist from MIT just confirmed what I’ve been slurring into my bourbon for months: AI ain’t the messiah we’ve been promised.
Daron Acemoglu - and yeah, I had to check that spelling three times - just dropped some truth bombs that’ll give the champagne-sipping tech prophets a nastier headache than my Sunday mornings. The numbers he’s throwing around are soberer than my designated driver.
Here’s the real kick in the teeth: all this AI hullabaloo? It’s worth about 1.1 to 1.6 percent GDP growth over the next decade. That’s right. After all the breathless promises about digital utopia, we’re looking at gains that wouldn’t cover the markup on a craft cocktail.
Let me break this down while I pour myself another:
The productivity boost? 0.05 percent annually. Hell, I get a bigger productivity boost from my morning coffee, and that’s saying something considering the state I’m usually in. The tech evangelists promised us flying cars, and we got a rounding error instead.
But wait, it gets better. Remember all those warnings about AI stealing our jobs faster than my ex-wife took the house? Turns out only about 20% of jobs are even on the chopping block. By 2030, most companies will still be doing the same old dance, just with fancier computers watching.
And here’s where it gets interesting, like finding an unopened bottle of Pappy Van Winkle in the back of the liquor cabinet: Acemoglu says we’re using AI all wrong. Instead of making workers better at their jobs, we’re obsessed with replacing them entirely. It’s like switching from single malt to bottom-shelf rotgut - sure, it’s cheaper, but at what cost?
The real problem isn’t the technology - it’s the gold rush mentality. We’re moving faster than my credit card bill during a weekend bender. Acemoglu and his buddy Johnson (sounds like a bourbon brand I’d trust) are saying maybe we should pump the brakes a bit. Novel concept, right? Taking time to think about consequences before diving headfirst into the shallow end of the pool.
You want to know the real punchline? The same folks promising AI will lift all boats are the ones programming it to replace your average Joe faster than you can say “automated customer service.” It’s like that old bar trick where someone offers to buy you a drink but sticks you with the tab for the whole round.
The kicker? Even David Ricardo - the Adam Smith understudy from back in the powdered wig days - figured out that just because a machine can do something doesn’t mean it’s good for everyone. And this guy was writing when the height of automation was a steam-powered loom.
Look, I’m not saying AI is useless. That’d be like saying beer has no purpose (and trust me, I’ve conducted extensive research on that subject). But maybe - just maybe - we should slow down enough to see where we’re stumbling before we end up face-down in the technological gutter.
Until next time, I’ll be here, doing what humans still do best: questioning authority and drinking bourbon. Not necessarily in that order.
[Written through the bottom of a rocks glass, December 2024]
P.S. Send coffee. And aspirin.